The Gambler’s Fallacy misconceptions and consequences

No matter how hard we try, people’s reasoning does not always follow a logical basis. On a great many occasions, we are so convinced of the validity and reasonableness of our reasoning that we end up making countless mistakes. In this article we will make you aware of The Gambler’s Fallacy.

This is what happens with the gambler fallacy. A type of misconception related to gambling and the likelihood of getting people to the point of losing large amounts of money at casinos and gambling. Next, we analyze this phenomenon.

What is the gambler’s fallacy?

Before entering the description of the gambler’s fallacy, we need to know what exactly the term fallacy consists of. The concept of fallacy belongs to the field of study of logic and the debate about these goes back to the time of Aristotle.

Although there is no absolute consensus on the concrete definition of this concept, we can describe a fallacy as an argument that may seem valid, but in reality is not . Sometimes these fallacies can be generated intentionally with the aim of deceiving or manipulating other people, while at other times they are committed unconsciously, due to an error of reasoning or ignorance.

At first glance, it might seem like a fallacy is easy to spot, but the reality is that sometimes these mistakes or errors in reasoning are so subtle that it takes a lot of attention to spot them, which leads people to make the wrong decisions.

Furthermore, the fact that an argument is considered a fallacy, also called a fallacious argument, does not necessarily imply that its hypotheses or assumptions are neither false nor true . It is possible that reasoning based on certain hypotheses is a fallacious judgment, since it makes the invalidity of the reasoning itself false.

Once the meaning of the fallacy concept is understood, it may be easier to understand what the gambler’s fallacy is based on. This hoax, also known as the gambler’s fallacy or Monte Carlo fallacy, due to its relation to gambling, consists of a logical fallacy whereby people mistakenly believe that past random events influence or affect random events. futures

For example, if we roll a die and the number three is rolled, it is very possible that, due to player fallacy, we conclude that it is quite unlikely that the same number will roll again on a second roll ; when in reality the odds are the same.

As this kind of deception of logic is associated with the world of gambling, its main consequence is usually some kind of economic loss on the part of the person victimized by the fallacy.

The wrong ideas contained in this logical error

As we have already mentioned, the main deception in the gambler’s fallacy is to believe that a random past event conditions the outcome of a future random event. However, there are some other misconceptions contained in it. These are as follows.

1. A random event is more likely to occur because it does not occur for a period of time.

For example, if we go back to the case of the dice, this fallacy might lead us to think that if the number 3 has never been rolled 10 times, it is more likely to be the next roll. But in reality, pulling out that number or any other has the same probability .

2. A random event is less likely to occur because it occurred over a period of time.

In this case, the opposite phenomenon occurs. If in a series of dice rolls, the number 3 has appeared on several occasions, the gambler’s fallacy leads us to think that the next roll is less likely to appear.

Another way to look at this is when purchasing a lottery ticket. Generally, people are reluctant to buy tickets with repeated numbers. For example, anyone will choose 74398 before 01011. The reason is that false logic makes us think that it is very unlikely that so many numbers will be repeated or followed .

3. A random event is less likely to occur if it happened recently

For this fallacy, we can use the example of lotteries. If in the previous lottery the winning number was 18245, it is very possible that lottery players will fall into the mistake that this will not come out again in the next draw. However, the reality is that, although it sounds strange, the same possibilities exist.

4. A random event is more likely to occur if it doesn’t happen recently

Finally, this false belief is the opposite equivalent of the previous one. On this occasion, the gambler’s fallacy leads us to think, for example, that if in the game of roulette during the last move the ball landed on red, it is more likely that now it lands on black.

What consequences does this fallacy have?

Although, once explained, anyone might think she wouldn’t fall for that kind of deception. It is extraordinary to observe how this type of fallacy affects and conditions us much more than we think .

These wrong thoughts appear unconsciously. One of the characteristics of this gambler fallacy is that people think we are better at calculating the odds of who we really are.

The absolute conviction of the above misconceptions can lead people to lose large sums of money or even goods . We must not forget that gambling can be addictive and that there are more and more gambling and gambling games in which a person can participate without leaving the living room of their home.

If to the addiction that these games generate, we add the fact that no one is free from the influence of the gambler’s fallacy, we will obtain as a result a large number of people losing large sums of money without being aware of the errors of thought that are leading them to it. .

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